How have the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors changed during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study investigates how the dependence structures between stock markets and economic factors have changed during the COVID-19 pandemic using the dynamic model averaging approach. A series of economic factors such as commodity markets, cryptocurrency, monetary policy, international capital flows, and market uncertainty indices are considered. We find that the importance of economic variables and the sign and size of their coefficients are significantly different from those before the COVID-19 pandemic. The stock markets are most influenced by economic factors during the COVID-19 outbreak.     

基于超效率SBM模型的珠三角区域物流效率及影响因素分析

物流效率是反映物流绩效水平的重要指标.以珠三角城市群9个地市(不含香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区)为研究对象,基于珠三角9个地市2010—2019年的面板数据,采用超效率SBM模型和GM L指数,测算珠三角城市群各地市的物流效率值及变动趋势.研究表明:技术进步是珠三角区域物流效率提升的主要因素,综合管理水平有待提高;珠三角区域的物流效率总体处于中等偏上效率水平且变化不大,深圳市物流效率水平提升较快且效率最高,东莞市物流效率最低,珠海市效率值起伏最为明显,整个测算期间呈"W"形走势.为进一步探讨外部因素对珠三角区域物流效率的影响程度,选取Tobit模型进行回归分析,发现区位优势对珠三角地区物流效率的提升起到了重要的作用.     

女性高管对企业研发创新的影响：一个有调节的中介模型

企业创新是企业持续发展的内在动力,也是推动国家产业升级、建设创新型国家的重要举措.近年来女性高管比重不断提高,学术界开始关注女性高管对企业研发创新的影响.以沪深两市2010—2018年A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验女性高管对企业研发创新投入的影响.结果表明:女性高管负向影响企业研发创新投入;其负向作用以风险承担为中介实现;企业所有制调节了中介过程的后半段路径.     

Optimal lockdown in altruistic economies

The recent COVID-19 crisis has revealed the urgent need to study the impact of an infectious disease on market economies and provide adequate policy recommendations. The present paper studies the optimal lockdown policy in a dynamic general equilibrium model where households are altruistic and they care about the share of infected individuals. The spread of the disease is modeled here using SIS dynamics, which implies that recovery does not confer immunity. To avoid non-convexity issues, we assume that the lockdown is constant in time. This strong assumption allows us to provide analytical solutions. We find that the zero lockdown is efficient when agents do not care about the share of infected, while a positive lockdown is recommended beyond a critical level of altruism. Moreover, the lockdown intensity increases in the degree of altruism. Our robust analytical results are illustrated by numerical simulations, which show, in particular, that the optimal lockdown never trespasses 60% and that eradication is not always optimal.     

A novel model to manage air cargo disruptions caused by global catastrophes such as Covid-19

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has drastically disrupted the air cargo industry. This disruption has taken many directions, one of which is the demand imbalance which occurs due to the sudden change in the cargo capacity, as well as demand. Therefore, the random change leads to excessive demand in some routes (hot-selling routes), while some other routes suffer from a big shortage of demand (underutilized routes). Routes are substitutable when there are several adjacent airports in the Origin & Destination (O&D) market. In this market, demand imbalance between substitutable routes occurs because of the above reasons. To tackle the demand imbalance problem, a novel model is introduced to estimate the quantity combinations which maintains the balance between underutilized and hot-selling routes. This model is a variant of the classic Cournot model which captures different quantity scenarios in the form of the best response for each route compared to the other. We then cultivate the model by integrating the Puppet Cournot game with the quantity discount policy. The quantity discount policy is an incentive which motivates the freight forwarders to increase their orders in the underutilized routes. After conducting numerical experiments, the results reveal that the profit can increase up to 25% by using the quantity discount. However, the quantity discount model is only applicable when the profit increase in the hot-selling route is greater than the profit decrease in the underutilized route.     

How and why auditors’ social exchange relationships influence their attitudes and behaviors: Implications for audit quality

External auditors regularly interact with various parties at work, such as their accounting firms, engagement team members, and clients. These interactions can help shape the nature of auditors’ social exchange relationships with these entities, which in turn may influence their behavior toward these targets. This installment of Accounting Matters draws from recently published research by Herda and colleagues to (1) explain how constructive auditor-target connections can develop and lead to beneficial outcomes like reduced auditor burnout and turnover intentions, as well as more citizenship behavior, and (2) discuss how these upshots might ultimately affect audit quality. This topic is important because audit quality translates into improved financial reporting, which helps stakeholders who rely on audited financial statements to make informed business decisions. Specifically, we underscore the key role auditors’ perceptions of fair treatment from a relationship partner play in fostering a strong psychological bond with the target via perceived support. We further consider how auditors’ consequent commitment to the target can result in favorable organizational outcomes, including enhanced audit and financial reporting quality. We also discuss practical implications for accounting firms.     

草地确权对牧户草地转入的影响

确权政策的实施稳定了地权，保障了牧户的产权权益。基于内蒙古自治区锡林郭勒盟、鄂尔多斯市和乌兰察布市的调研数据，运用Tobit回归模型得出以下结论：确权对于牧户草地转入具有显著的抑制作用；户主特征中性别、年龄对于土地转入作用不显著，受教育程度具有显著的促进作用；家庭特征中家庭收入、家庭承包草场面积和牲畜存栏量对于草场转入具有显著的促进作用。     

险资股权投资的结构性改革研究*——基于险资投资的倒U型效应分析

保险资金作为重要的机构投资者能否发挥促进公司绩效提升的作用在已有研究和监管政策制定上都存在较大争议。本文以2005-2017年A股上市公司为研究样本，发现险资持股比例对上市公司绩效以及估值影响存在显著的倒U型曲线效应，相应机制研究表明险资持股通过显著影响两类代理成本的渠道发挥治理作用。在适度持股比例以下，险资增持能够降低被投资公司管理费用率和其他应收款占比，并提高资产周转率，从而降低两类代理成本；持股超过一定比例反而造成两类代理成本上升。险资持股比例变化对保险机构调研次数的影响则从公司治理参与角度印证了以上结论。对倒U型曲线效应的深入分析既有助于深化对机构投资者影响公司绩效的多重效应和机制的认识，同时为在金融机构层面落实金融供给侧结构性改革、增强险资服务实体经济能力提供参考。     

财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应*——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理，揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式；运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据，构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调；财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性，在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展；两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致，在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

The dark side of innovation: How new SKUs affect brand choice in the presence of consumer uncertainty and learning

New product activity is critical for sustained success of consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands. However, the impact of new SKUs on the perceived quality, quality uncertainty and subsequent choice of the brand as a whole is, as of yet, not well understood. The authors study how new additions to the brand line shape consumers’ quality perceptions, and how this – next to the mere line length effect – influences their choice of brands over time. They do so in the setting of an emerging market (China), where new product activity is particularly pervasive. Using a unique scanner panel dataset of Chinese households over the period 2011–2014, they estimate a Bayesian learning model that accommodates varying quality, on two CPG categories, and for two types of new-product additions (new sensory SKUs vs. new non-sensory SKUs). They show that while adding new SKUs may lift the brand’s perceived quality level, it also makes consumers more uncertain about the quality of the brand – dampening their brand choice. This holds especially for light customers – an important part of the brand clientele. Managerial implications are discussed.